The day in numbers
| Open | High | Low | Close | Move | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3,890 | $3,970 | $3,884 | $3,946 | +1.81% | $86 (2.22%) |
Gold's last 15 daily moves
Close-to-close, percent; the gold bar is Monday 2 November 2026
How big was it?
The move of +1.81% was 1.4 times a normal daily move, which makes it a busy day. Its high-to-low range of $86 was wider than 87% of all days since 2010, and the size of the close-to-close move ranks above 93% of them.
Gold's daily range, last 40 trading days
High minus low as a share of the previous close
How our forecast did
Before the day opened we gave 43% for a higher day, 23% flat and 35% lower. Gold closed higher, at $3,946, outside the 50% range ($3,849 to $3,908) and outside the 80% range ($3,797 to $3,930). One day proves nothing: the scorecard counts every forecast.
| Level | Price | Chance we gave (1 day) | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day high | $4,083 | 0% | Not reached |
| Yesterday's high | $4,026 | 0% | Not reached |
| Round number above | $3,900 | 66% | Reached |
| Yesterday's low | $3,870 | 92% | Not reached |
| 5-day low | $3,870 | 92% | Not reached |
| Round number below | $3,850 | 58% | Not reached |
What it means for risk
A normal full day in gold is about $49 right now (one standard daily move). Today travelled $86 from low to high, which is 1.7 times that. If your stop was $25 away, it would have been touched by the day's range alone, before any view about direction.
- Quiet days (under half a normal move) are the minority, so a tight stop is exposed on most sessions.
- Size is set by the stop, not the other way round. See position sizing and risk of ruin.
- Volatility clusters. A busy day makes the next day more likely to be busy too, which is why the ranges in our daily outlooks change from day to day.
Where this sits in the last two years
Gold's range today of 2.22% compares with an average of 1.82% over the last 30 trading days and 2.50% over the last 250. Today's move of +1.81% was above the size of an average day (1.27%) over the last year.
Frequently asked questions
How wide is a normal day for gold right now?
A standard daily move is about $49, based on the previous 20 daily moves. A full high-to-low range is usually somewhat wider.
How did gold do on Monday 2 November 2026?
Gold closed at $3,946, a move of +1.81% from the previous close, with a high of $3,970 and a low of $3,884.
Was it a big day for gold?
It was a busy day: 1.4 times a normal daily move, with a range wider than 87% of days since 2010.
Sources and method
- Daily bars from our own MetaTrader 5 history for XAUUSD; a normal daily move is the standard deviation of the previous 20 daily moves.