The short version
Gold's last 15 closes and the likely range ahead
Gold price in US dollars; shaded bands are the 50% and 80% ranges for one and two trading days
How likely is each direction?
| Up | Flat | Down | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Next trading day | 40% | 21% | 39% |
| Long-run average, next day | 42% | 22% | 36% |
| Next two trading days | 41% | 22% | 37% |
| Long-run average, two days | 41% | 22% | 37% |
The model describes today's market with five numbers: how volatile it is compared with the last two years, the 20-day and 5-day trend, the size of the last day's move and where price sits in its 10-day range. It finds the 250 past days that looked most similar (out of 4101), and counts what happened next.
Where price could trade
From a last close of $3,946, half of similar days finished the next trading day between $3,917 and $3,982, and four in five between $3,885 and $4,015. Over two trading days the 80% band widens to $3,839 to $4,035.
| Scenario (next day) | Chance | What it means | Typical close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Higher | 40% | A rise of more than $13 | $3,990 |
| Flat | 21% | A close within $13 of the last close | $3,933 to $3,959 |
| Lower | 39% | A fall of more than $13 | $3,906 |
Levels that matter
| Level | Price | Position | Touch in 1 day | Touch in 2 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day high | $4,083 | above | 2% | 7% |
| Yesterday's high | $3,970 | above | 61% | 72% |
| Round number above | $3,950 | above | 96% | 97% |
| Round number below | $3,900 | below | 34% | 52% |
| Yesterday's low | $3,884 | below | 22% | 37% |
| 5-day low | $3,870 | below | 14% | 28% |
Scheduled news in this window
| Release | When | Size |
|---|---|---|
| US job openings (JOLTS) | Tue 03 Nov, 15:00 UTC (10:00 Eastern) | Smaller |
Last forecast, scored
This is one of the first forecasts we log. Each one is saved before the day starts and scored automatically when the day closes. The public scorecard shows every one, wrong ones included.
How to use this
- Use the range for stops and size. A stop inside the 50% band is likely to be touched by ordinary movement.
- Do not read the direction odds as a signal. They are close to the long-run average on most days, and we show that on purpose.
- Check the news calendar. Our model does not know about scheduled releases yet; see how to read news data.
- Check how the model has done. The scorecard is public and includes the misses.
Frequently asked questions
What is the chance gold goes up on Tuesday?
Our model gives 40% for an up day, 21% flat and 39% down, against a long-run average of 42%, 22% and 36%. It is a small tilt, not a signal.
How far could gold move on Tuesday?
Half of similar days closed between $3,917 and $3,982, and four in five between $3,885 and $4,015. A normal full day is about $54.
How accurate are these gold forecasts?
In a back-test of 3,595 past days the 80% range held 78% of the time, while the direction odds were only 0.16% better than a plain average. Every live forecast is scored in public on the scorecard page.
Sources and method
- Method: nearest-neighbour analogues on daily XAUUSD bars from our own MetaTrader 5 history; outcomes measured in units of daily volatility; probabilities pulled toward the long-run average. See how our outlook works.
- Forecast logged before the day opened; scored automatically on the public scorecard. Educational research, not a recommendation.