The short version
Gold's last 15 closes and the likely range ahead
Gold price in US dollars; shaded bands are the 50% and 80% ranges for one and two trading days
How likely is each direction?
| Up | Flat | Down | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Next trading day | 43% | 22% | 35% |
| Long-run average, next day | 42% | 22% | 36% |
| Next two trading days | 42% | 23% | 35% |
| Long-run average, two days | 41% | 22% | 37% |
The model describes today's market with five numbers: how volatile it is compared with the last two years, the 20-day and 5-day trend, the size of the last day's move and where price sits in its 10-day range. It finds the 250 past days that looked most similar (out of 4102), and counts what happened next.
Where price could trade
From a last close of $3,921, half of similar days finished the next trading day between $3,891 and $3,956, and four in five between $3,853 and $3,991. Over two trading days the 80% band widens to $3,841 to $4,023.
| Scenario (next day) | Chance | What it means | Typical close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Higher | 43% | A rise of more than $13 | $3,958 |
| Flat | 22% | A close within $13 of the last close | $3,908 to $3,935 |
| Lower | 35% | A fall of more than $13 | $3,876 |
Levels that matter
| Level | Price | Position | Touch in 1 day | Touch in 2 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day high | $4,083 | above | 1% | 4% |
| Yesterday's high | $3,971 | above | 31% | 50% |
| Round number above | $3,950 | above | 63% | 76% |
| Round number below | $3,900 | below | 59% | 72% |
| Yesterday's low | $3,896 | below | 54% | 67% |
| 5-day low | $3,870 | below | 28% | 43% |
Scheduled news in this window
No major US release (jobs report, CPI, PPI, job openings, labour costs or an FOMC decision) is scheduled in this window, according to the official calendars.
Last forecast, scored
Our previous scored forecast was made for the day after Friday 30 October 2026. It gave 43% for up and 35% for down; gold finished up, at $3,947, outside the 50% range and outside the 80% range. One forecast proves nothing either way: the scorecard counts them all.
How to use this
- Use the range for stops and size. A stop inside the 50% band is likely to be touched by ordinary movement.
- Do not read the direction odds as a signal. They are close to the long-run average on most days, and we show that on purpose.
- Check the news calendar. Our model does not know about scheduled releases yet; see how to read news data.
- Check how the model has done. The scorecard is public and includes the misses.
Frequently asked questions
What is the chance gold goes up on Wednesday?
Our model gives 43% for an up day, 22% flat and 35% down, against a long-run average of 42%, 22% and 36%. It is a small tilt, not a signal.
How far could gold move on Wednesday?
Half of similar days closed between $3,891 and $3,956, and four in five between $3,853 and $3,991. A normal full day is about $53.
How accurate are these gold forecasts?
In a back-test of 3,595 past days the 80% range held 78% of the time, while the direction odds were only 0.16% better than a plain average. Every live forecast is scored in public on the scorecard page.
Sources and method
- Method: nearest-neighbour analogues on daily XAUUSD bars from our own MetaTrader 5 history; outcomes measured in units of daily volatility; probabilities pulled toward the long-run average. See how our outlook works.
- Forecast logged before the day opened; scored automatically on the public scorecard. Educational research, not a recommendation.