The short version
Gold's last 15 closes and the likely range ahead
Gold price in US dollars; shaded bands are the 50% and 80% ranges for one and two trading days
How likely is each direction?
| Up | Flat | Down | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Next trading day | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Long-run average, next day | 42% | 22% | 36% |
| Next two trading days | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| Long-run average, two days | 41% | 22% | 37% |
The model describes today's market with five numbers: how volatile it is compared with the last two years, the 20-day and 5-day trend, the size of the last day's move and where price sits in its 10-day range. It finds the 250 past days that looked most similar (out of 4103), and counts what happened next.
Where price could trade
From a last close of $4,064, half of similar days finished the next trading day between $4,032 and $4,091, and four in five between $3,993 and $4,126. Over two trading days the 80% band widens to $3,966 to $4,158.
| Scenario (next day) | Chance | What it means | Typical close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Higher | 35% | A rise of more than $16 | $4,111 |
| Flat | 26% | A close within $16 of the last close | $4,048 to $4,080 |
| Lower | 39% | A fall of more than $16 | $4,019 |
Levels that matter
| Level | Price | Position | Touch in 1 day | Touch in 2 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Round number above | $4,100 | above | 45% | 63% |
| Yesterday's high | $4,070 | above | 93% | 96% |
| 5-day high | $4,070 | above | 93% | 96% |
| Round number below | $4,050 | below | 84% | 90% |
| Yesterday's low | $3,920 | below | 2% | 9% |
| 5-day low | $3,870 | below | 1% | 3% |
Scheduled news in this window
| Release | When | Size |
|---|---|---|
| US jobs report (NFP) | Fri 06 Nov, 13:30 UTC (08:30 Eastern) | Major |
Last forecast, scored
Our previous scored forecast was made for the day after Monday 2 November 2026. It gave 40% for up and 39% for down; gold finished down, at $3,930, inside the 50% range and inside the 80% range. One forecast proves nothing either way: the scorecard counts them all.
How to use this
- Use the range for stops and size. A stop inside the 50% band is likely to be touched by ordinary movement.
- Do not read the direction odds as a signal. They are close to the long-run average on most days, and we show that on purpose.
- Check the news calendar. Our model does not know about scheduled releases yet; see how to read news data.
- Check how the model has done. The scorecard is public and includes the misses.
Frequently asked questions
What is the chance gold goes up on Thursday?
Our model gives 35% for an up day, 26% flat and 39% down, against a long-run average of 42%, 22% and 36%. It is a small tilt, not a signal.
How far could gold move on Thursday?
Half of similar days closed between $4,032 and $4,091, and four in five between $3,993 and $4,126. A normal full day is about $63.
How accurate are these gold forecasts?
In a back-test of 3,595 past days the 80% range held 78% of the time, while the direction odds were only 0.16% better than a plain average. Every live forecast is scored in public on the scorecard page.
Sources and method
- Method: nearest-neighbour analogues on daily XAUUSD bars from our own MetaTrader 5 history; outcomes measured in units of daily volatility; probabilities pulled toward the long-run average. See how our outlook works.
- Forecast logged before the day opened; scored automatically on the public scorecard. Educational research, not a recommendation.