The short version
Gold's last 15 closes and the likely range ahead
Gold price in US dollars; shaded bands are the 50% and 80% ranges for one and two trading days
How likely is each direction?
| Up | Flat | Down | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Next trading day | 40% | 23% | 37% |
| Long-run average, next day | 42% | 22% | 36% |
| Next two trading days | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| Long-run average, two days | 41% | 22% | 37% |
The model describes today's market with five numbers: how volatile it is compared with the last two years, the 20-day and 5-day trend, the size of the last day's move and where price sits in its 10-day range. It finds the 250 past days that looked most similar (out of 4104), and counts what happened next.
Where price could trade
From a last close of $4,099, half of similar days finished the next trading day between $4,066 and $4,133, and four in five between $4,029 and $4,171. Over two trading days the 80% band widens to $4,010 to $4,203.
| Scenario (next day) | Chance | What it means | Typical close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Higher | 40% | A rise of more than $16 | $4,147 |
| Flat | 23% | A close within $16 of the last close | $4,083 to $4,115 |
| Lower | 37% | A fall of more than $16 | $4,055 |
Levels that matter
| Level | Price | Position | Touch in 1 day | Touch in 2 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday's high | $4,147 | above | 36% | 54% |
| 5-day high | $4,147 | above | 36% | 54% |
| Round number above | $4,100 | above | 99% | 99% |
| Yesterday's low | $4,058 | below | 40% | 55% |
| Round number below | $4,050 | below | 33% | 47% |
| 5-day low | $3,870 | below | 1% | 1% |
Scheduled news in this window
| Release | When | Size |
|---|---|---|
| US jobs report (NFP) | Fri 06 Nov, 13:30 UTC (08:30 Eastern) | Major |
Last forecast, scored
Our previous scored forecast was made for the day after Tuesday 3 November 2026. It gave 43% for up and 35% for down; gold finished up, at $4,060, outside the 50% range and outside the 80% range. One forecast proves nothing either way: the scorecard counts them all.
How to use this
- Use the range for stops and size. A stop inside the 50% band is likely to be touched by ordinary movement.
- Do not read the direction odds as a signal. They are close to the long-run average on most days, and we show that on purpose.
- Check the news calendar. Our model does not know about scheduled releases yet; see how to read news data.
- Check how the model has done. The scorecard is public and includes the misses.
Frequently asked questions
What is the chance gold goes up on Friday?
Our model gives 40% for an up day, 23% flat and 37% down, against a long-run average of 42%, 22% and 36%. It is a small tilt, not a signal.
How far could gold move on Friday?
Half of similar days closed between $4,066 and $4,133, and four in five between $4,029 and $4,171. A normal full day is about $63.
How accurate are these gold forecasts?
In a back-test of 3,595 past days the 80% range held 78% of the time, while the direction odds were only 0.16% better than a plain average. Every live forecast is scored in public on the scorecard page.
Sources and method
- Method: nearest-neighbour analogues on daily XAUUSD bars from our own MetaTrader 5 history; outcomes measured in units of daily volatility; probabilities pulled toward the long-run average. See how our outlook works.
- Forecast logged before the day opened; scored automatically on the public scorecard. Educational research, not a recommendation.